Breaking Down Some Numbers

I've heard some arguments recently how Oregon hasn't proved themselves in the Pac-10 yet because the teams they've beat are 0-8 in the Pac... But the teams the Beaver's have beat in the Pac-10 are 4-2! I thought I'd look into the 0-8 and 4-2 a little more... because numbers can be deceiving the way you use them.

First and foremost, 3 of those 8 losses are to OREGON!

The remaining 5 are all respectable losses:
2 - USC (who has won the Pac-10 the last 7 YEARS!)
2 - Stanford (who started 3-0 in the Pac-10 before losing to OSU)
1 - Arizona State (who may only be 1-1 in conference but despite how bad ASU has been playing this year... this loss was by Washington State)

Washington State has a bye and Cal & UCLA are playing each other this weekend. That means despite what happens, that 0-8 record will only be 1-9 after this weekend. Still sounds bad, huh?

Let's take this same logic and apply it to the Beavers... The teams they've beat have a record of 4-2 in the Pac-10 (Or 4-0 if not including the Beavers)... Sounds much better than Oregon's 0-8, right?!?

Let's take a look at those 4 wins from Oregon State's opponents (Plus 3 of the 4 are Stanford's wins).
2 - Washington State (enough said)
1 - Washington (Yes respectable this year... but they are still the team that went 0-12 last year).
1 - UCLA (respectable)

Oregon State's conference loss is to Arizona, a team that is 3-2 or 1-1 in conference (that 1 win being over Oregon State and one loss being to... Washington).

So what'd we learn from that exercise?!? Not much, not much at all... but since I'm already this far...


For $hits and giggles, let's take a look at Oregon's non-conference opponents... They are 11-6 (or 10-4 if not including Oregon). So far this season all of Oregon's opponents are 18-15 (or 17-10 if not including Oregon).

***If you exclude the two patsies (Washington State and Purdue whom only have 1 win each and are likely not to beat more than anther team or two) you are looking at an opponents record of the other 4 teams at 16-5 (or 15-2 if not including Oregon).

Take a look at Oregon State's non-conference opponents... They are 10-8 (or 9-6 if not including Oregon State). So far this season all of Oregon State's opponents are 20-14 (or 18-10 if not including Oregon State).

***If you exclude the two patsies (Portland State and UNLV whom only have 2 wins each) you are looking at an opponents record of the other 4 teams at 16-6 (or 14-4 if not including Oregon State).

Both teams seem fairly equal when you break them down like that...

Oregon's Non-conference Schedule (excluding UofO): 11-6 (10-4)
OSU's Non-conference Schedule (excluding OSU) : 10-8 (9-6 )

Oregon's Overall Schedule (excluding UofO): 18-15 (17-10)
OSU's Overall Schedule (excluding OSU) : 20-14 (18-10)

Oregon's Overall Schedule w/o patsies (excluding UofO): 16-5 (15-2)
OSU's Overall Schedule w/o patsies (excluding OSU) : 16-6 (14-4)

So after this long and extensive look at this... Just what have we learned? Mainly that the numbers don't matter yet and won't make complete sense until the end of the season when everyone has had a chance to play one another... Plus I pretty much just wasted 15 minutes of my life... And you wasted 5 for reading this (but what else do you have to do on a bye week?!?).

Nonetheless... bring on the rest of the schedule...
Go Ducks!

Top Non Conference Games in 2009

Collegefootballnews.com came out with the Top 50 Non conference games. 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50

Not surprisingly, 2 of Oregon's 3 non conference games ended up in the top 15...

• 12. Utah at Oregon, Sept. 19
• 7. Oregon at Boise State, Sept. 5

Here are where other Pac-10 non-conference games ended up

• 47. LSU at Washington, Sept. 5
• 40. California at Minnesota, Sept. 19
• 37. Arizona at Iowa, Sept. 19
• 35. Arizona State at Georgia, Sept. 26
• 28. Cincinnati at Oregon State, Sept. 19
• 27. UCLA at Tennessee, Sept. 12
• 25. Maryland at California, Sept. 5
• 4. USC at Notre Dame, Oct. 17
• 1. USC at Ohio State, Sept. 12

For Those Who Missed the Game

Does this bring up memories of Maurice Morris in the Fiesta Bowl?

Here are some other highlights...

How'd I Do?

• We will see 2 quarterbacks play and Darron Thomas won't see action. - Loss. 0-1. If it wasn't for such a blowout I probably would have got this one but Thomas saw action in the last 50 something seconds
• Masoli will get the majority of the snaps. - Win. 1-1. Masoli played until the 4th quarter and basically solidified himself as the starter.
• JJ will have a 100 plus yards rushing. - Loss. 1-2. Even though the Ducks had over 300 yards rushing, not one player had over 100 yards. Masoli had the rushing high with 85.
• Blount will score his 11th touchdown of the season. Win. 2-2. Actually Blount scored number 11 and 12. I don't think anyone could have predicted that Mo Morris run for a touchdown.
• Chung will get his first interception of the year. Loss. 2-3. Nope, the other 2 D-Boyz each had one though. One of Chung's hits did make Carpenter's nose bleed though.
• Carpenter won't make it past halftime. Loss. 2-4. Somehow he played almost the whole game. I did love the "Rudy, Rudy, Rudy" chants from the Oregon section.
• Carpenter will get sacked at least 4 times (even if he doesn't stay in the game past halftime). Loss. 2-5. Oregon only recorded 2 sacks on the game (at least according to cfstats). I remembered 3 before half but apparently I was wrong.
• Reed will account for at least 2.5 sacks. Loss. 2-6. Reed did not record a sack vs. Arizona State even though Carpenter was constantly pressured.
• Ducks will win the turnover battle. Loss. 2-7. This was tied at 3-3.
• Jaison Williams will have over 70 yards receiving. Loss. 2-8. Only 1 reception for 12 yards.
• Ducks will throw for over 200 yards. Win. 3-8. Masoli completed 17 of 26 for 147 and Roper completed 4 of 4 for 86. Total of 233.
• Ducks won't hold ASU to under 100 yards rushing. Win. 4-8. ASU had 107 yards on the ground.
• ASU won't pickup more than 350 total yards. Win. 5-8. Whew... ASU got close but came up short at 333.
• Both teams will score double digits. Win. 6-8. Final score 54-20.
• Ducks win by double digits. Win. 7-8. Make that 34 points.

Quick Predictions

Thought I would throw up a few quick predictions before I took off for Phoenix.

• We will see 2 quarterbacks play and Darron Thomas won't see action.
• Masoli will get the majority of the snaps.
  
• JJ will have a 100 plus yards rushing.
• Blount will score his 11th touchdown of the season.
• Chung will get his first interception of the year.
• Carpenter won't make it past halftime.
• Carpenter will get sacked at least 4 times (even if he doesn't stay in the game past halftime).
• Reed will account for at least 2.5 sacks.
• Ducks will win the turnover battle.
• Jaison Williams will have over 70 yards receiving.
  
• Ducks will throw for over 200 yards.
• Ducks won't hold ASU to under 100 yards rushing.
• ASU won't pickup more than 350 total yards.
  
• Both teams will score double digits.
• Ducks win by double digits.

GO DUCKS!

Misc. Links

Here are a few links in relation to this weekends game at ASU:

• A hobbled Carpenter is likely to be running for his life on Saturday.
• Offensive balance? Give Bellotti a break... and more OSU Rose Bowl comments... Ugh...
• Some new wrinkles, injury status, Blount's scoring and the uniforms get some more props.
• The Ducks running game will give them the advantage against the Sun Devils.
• Pritchett will miss the ASU game due to a suspension for breaking team rules.

ASU TV Situation

For those not actually going to the game, here is the TV situation for Saturday's game against ASU. There are usually a few bars around the Portland area that are able to tap into the satellite feed. Call ahead of time and be sure to talk to someone who knows if they have satellites. Many bartenders will think they can get the game because the bar has a sports package. The bar actually needs to have someone that knows how to snag that feed. It's not just some special channel.

Time for Some Warm Weather

The weather is looking warm in Arizona this weekend (highs of 90 and lows of 60). Should be perfect weather to watch a football game.

GoDucks.com posted week nine's football release for Oregon @ Arizona State.

Here are some interesting tidbits from the release if you don't plan on reading the whole thing...

• The Ducks had 12 consecutive wins after a bye week before dropping last years game at Arizona (when Dixon went down). Bellotti is 12-2.


• Nick Reed was named midseason All-America Team by CBSSports.com and was the ONLY Pac-10 player to make the list. He is also 5 tackles-for-a-loss from Devan Long's school record of 48 and 4.5 sacks behind leader Ernest Jones' record of 29. 5 of those TFLs and 3.5 sacks are against ASU.


• Patrick Chung has 27 tackles over 3 games against ASU... 9 tackles a game! Chung is 7th in Oregon's career list for tackles with 338.


• Jaison Williams has 15 catches for 243 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Sun Devils. His next catch will be to tie for Oregon's 3rd place career reception list with Demetrius Williams and Cristin McLemore. He needs 16 more receptions and 369 yards to beat both reception and career yard records.

Also, Oregon's game vs. Cal on November 1st will be broadcast at 12:30pm on ABC.

Remember the Duck's last visit to Sun Devil Stadium (48-13)?

That's a No Go

All appeals were denied. Those who were planning on staying home to watch the Oregon/ASU game are out of luck. Usually Cheerful Sports Page or Kingston Bar and Grill (Among other "true" sports bars) are able to get satellite feeds but there is no guarantee and you usually need to show up nice and early.

Duck & Devil Problems

After reading Bob Clark's breakdown of Arizona State's problems you have to feel pretty good about Oregon's chances next weekend. While Duck fans and critics alike believe that Oregon has some major issues to resolve, it can't be as bad as ASUs problems... Only 3 trips to the red zone with nothing to show from it, a player restrained after going after an assistant coach and Carpenter with a broken bone in his lower leg (just to name a few)... yikes.

And even while there is another quarterback competition during the bye week, I have to admit that I was happy to see that Bellotti actually stick with Masoli for the whole game against UCLA. The qb swapping in the past has seemed to create nothing but inconsistency. Pick a guy and stick with him (at least for that game). When Clemens went down in 2005 it just seemed like every time one of the qbs was gaining some swagger they were pulled for the other.

Regardless of Masoli's passing stats from the UCLA game (5-19), I was fairly impressed with the way he played. Keep in mind that "the gameplan" was to run the quarterback. Sure, Kelly didn't want Masoli to run it THAT much but UCLA kept daring him to (Probably so the Weasel could hurt another quarterback this season). At least 5 of those passes were perfectly placed and dropped by a wide receiver or tight end and another handful were thrown out of bounds because Masoli didn't have anyone to throw to.

I like Roper's accuracy but I believe that the dual threat of Masoli gives the Ducks the better chance to win. Especially if the Duck receivers can actually catch the balls when they are thrown their way.

Ahh... College football at it's best... There is no way anyone could have predicted that in game 7 our leading rusher would be Jeremiah Masoli and our leading receiver would be Chris Harper. Cheer up Duck fans, Oregon still pulled out the "W" and they'll have their leading receiver back for ASU.

ASU Kickoff Time

Looks like the Ducks will be playing under the lights for the 3rd time this season (USC's 5pm game had a few hours of light) as they are schedule to kick off at 7pm. However, the game will not be broadcast on television, so lights out (yes, lame pun intended).

Oregon has appealed Arizona State to see if they game could be played earlier to accommodate a possible OSN broadcast and appealed to the Pac-10 for a waiver to produce a telecast in conflict with FSN if the time isn't changed. According to Moseley, a time change is unlikely so cross your fingers and hope that FSN allows the Pac-10 to grant the waiver (for those not attending the game).

Devil Dome Destroyed

ASU apparently has to start the season on a low note too. Arizona State's new 8.4 million dollar "Devil Dome" was literally blown away after a storm last night.