Friday, October 16, 2009

Breaking Down Some Numbers

I've heard some arguments recently how Oregon hasn't proved themselves in the Pac-10 yet because the teams they've beat are 0-8 in the Pac... But the teams the Beaver's have beat in the Pac-10 are 4-2! I thought I'd look into the 0-8 and 4-2 a little more... because numbers can be deceiving the way you use them.

First and foremost, 3 of those 8 losses are to OREGON!

The remaining 5 are all respectable losses:
2 - USC (who has won the Pac-10 the last 7 YEARS!)
2 - Stanford (who started 3-0 in the Pac-10 before losing to OSU)
1 - Arizona State (who may only be 1-1 in conference but despite how bad ASU has been playing this year... this loss was by Washington State)

Washington State has a bye and Cal & UCLA are playing each other this weekend. That means despite what happens, that 0-8 record will only be 1-9 after this weekend. Still sounds bad, huh?

Let's take this same logic and apply it to the Beavers... The teams they've beat have a record of 4-2 in the Pac-10 (Or 4-0 if not including the Beavers)... Sounds much better than Oregon's 0-8, right?!?

Let's take a look at those 4 wins from Oregon State's opponents (Plus 3 of the 4 are Stanford's wins).
2 - Washington State (enough said)
1 - Washington (Yes respectable this year... but they are still the team that went 0-12 last year).
1 - UCLA (respectable)

Oregon State's conference loss is to Arizona, a team that is 3-2 or 1-1 in conference (that 1 win being over Oregon State and one loss being to... Washington).

So what'd we learn from that exercise?!? Not much, not much at all... but since I'm already this far...

For $hits and giggles, let's take a look at Oregon's non-conference opponents... They are 11-6 (or 10-4 if not including Oregon). So far this season all of Oregon's opponents are 18-15 (or 17-10 if not including Oregon).

***If you exclude the two patsies (Washington State and Purdue whom only have 1 win each and are likely not to beat more than anther team or two) you are looking at an opponents record of the other 4 teams at 16-5 (or 15-2 if not including Oregon).

Take a look at Oregon State's non-conference opponents... They are 10-8 (or 9-6 if not including Oregon State). So far this season all of Oregon State's opponents are 20-14 (or 18-10 if not including Oregon State).

***If you exclude the two patsies (Portland State and UNLV whom only have 2 wins each) you are looking at an opponents record of the other 4 teams at 16-6 (or 14-4 if not including Oregon State).

Both teams seem fairly equal when you break them down like that...

Oregon's Non-conference Schedule (excluding UofO): 11-6 (10-4)
OSU's Non-conference Schedule (excluding OSU) : 10-8 (9-6 )

Oregon's Overall Schedule (excluding UofO): 18-15 (17-10)
OSU's Overall Schedule (excluding OSU) : 20-14 (18-10)

Oregon's Overall Schedule w/o patsies (excluding UofO): 16-5 (15-2)
OSU's Overall Schedule w/o patsies (excluding OSU) : 16-6 (14-4)

So after this long and extensive look at this... Just what have we learned? Mainly that the numbers don't matter yet and won't make complete sense until the end of the season when everyone has had a chance to play one another... Plus I pretty much just wasted 15 minutes of my life... And you wasted 5 for reading this (but what else do you have to do on a bye week?!?).

Nonetheless... bring on the rest of the schedule...
Go Ducks!

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